两部门会同中国民航局向新疆乌什县地震灾区航运投送1000箱取暖炉

先回答第一个问题，关于就业的情况。

与此同时，中国抓住机遇，提高社会能力，成为世界制造业强国。就像以前的文明一样，我们优先考虑短期增长而不是长期生存[2]， 结果是气候变化、土壤退化、森林砍伐和生态系统日益不稳定。

随着我们用劳动力换取资本和社会稳定的社会契约在日益加剧的技术颠覆面前崩溃，这些问题也在加剧。在最大限度地发挥竞争优势的同时，我们将有可能充分参与、利用我们的经济盈余，并共同拥有网络。创可贴(工业文明)解决方案今天提出的解决方案，如增加税收和再分配、保护就业、再培训、限制消费或设置保护主义壁垒，只是用采掘时代的方法解决自由时代的问题。由于我们可以利用目前使用的一小块土地生产丰富的食品供应，就出现了如何利用这些土地的其他可能性。所有权(资本)将以牺牲劳动者为代价，在经济中占有更大的份额，导致财富和影响力日益集中。

然而，新的生产系统正在出现，有可能突破我们当前文明的能力边界，解决我们正在经历问题的根本原因。事实上，为了刺激增长，我们容忍了一定程度的不平等。到1960年，除了500万英亩以外，其余的土地都释放出来供其他用途，主要用于饲养肉牛和奶牛[33]。

竞争、技术进步和规模，进一步压低了图书价格。意想不到的后果智能手机市场的爆炸式增长，也有助于推动降低成本，提高各基层技术的能力，使之进而以不同的方式融合，颠覆其他、显然不相关的经济部门。从音乐、银行、新闻、餐馆，到导航、零售、教育和旅游等行业，都发生了转变。到2020年，该公司市值超过1万亿美元，成为世界上最有价值的公司之一[8]。

叫车(ride-hailing，打车服务)是一个例子，多亏智能手机，使叫车成为可能。杠杆作用(包括财务和运营)意味着需求的小幅下降可以使一个行业破产。

后来，人们呼吁限制甚至禁止使用这种致命的新发明。但在这看似无望的荒凉中，曙光开始出现了。线性的、机械的、封闭的思维方式，使我们无法提前看到颠覆的速度和程度。通常情况是这样的，颠覆者来自核心市场之外。

可以把 这些加速因素视为采用的主要(一阶)的驱动力。数十亿人的生活瞬间发生改变。结语在中国，在某些人的心目中，颠覆是个贬义词，有点大逆不道。在颠覆的早期阶段，这些制动机制会给变革带来强大的阻力。

然而，偶然情况下，各种因素的融合会引发相变。第一个关键技术已经到位，但油墨技术、冶金技术和机械加工技术的进步，导致金属、可移动字体的发明，是使印刷机成为可能的必要条件。

著名的诺基亚、黑莓和摩托罗拉等行业巨头，都被新兴的智能手机打了个措手不及。结果证明，所有这些障碍是变量，而不是常量，消失得非常之快。

但是，内燃机(ICE)汽车的崩溃,不仅仅是因为自动驾驶电动汽车(A-EV)的成本大幅降低,智能手机也颠覆了个人拥有汽车的价值。在经济的每个部门也可看到同样的模式，即长期渐进式变化中夹杂着快速的颠覆。在这些新工业周围建起基础设施，公路建筑业迅猛发展，石油工业腾飞，加油站(1905年建第一个)也陆续铺开，1920年有1.5万个，1930年达到12.4万个[21]。橡胶的硫化(1844年)和充气轮胎(1887年)的发展一起，取代了铁轮和木轮，因为它们承受不了内燃机传递的力。钢铁行业增加投资，进一步推动成本下降，带来某些创新，比如不腐蚀的不锈钢，为外科植入物、食品和饮料设备以及建筑应用开辟了新的可能性。约会完全改变了：在网上认识的异性恋夫妇的比例，从1995年的2%上升到2017年的近40%[11]。

在2013年的一次新闻发布会上，时任诺基亚首席执行官的斯蒂芬埃洛普说，我们没有做错任何事，但不知怎么的，我们输了[7]。微软当时的首席执行官史蒂夫鲍尔默(Steve Ballmer)甚至更直率，iPhone不可能获得任何显著的市场份额。

这些都有助于原地锁定现有体制。亨利福特(Henry Ford)重新思考并翻版了这种模式，变为移动式汽车装配线，把制造时间和成本降低了一个数量级。

资料与注释：I James Arbib & Tony Seba，Rethinking HumanityFive Foundational Sector Disruptions, the Lifecycle of Civilizations, and the Coming Age of Freedom，RethinkX, June 20201 Capabilities can be thought of across many dimensions. For example, improvement in computer processing is usually measured in number of transistors per unit of space (inch). But these transistors also improve in speed, so improvement in processing power is a combination of both. Size, speed, and also durability are all relevant measures. Lithium-ion batteries improve in cost/kWh stored, but also in energy density, charge times, and lifetime. While the cost curve measures only $/unit of storage the other measures of capability are also relevant. A cheap battery that is huge, for example, would be of no use for a smartphone.2 Fiegerman, S. (2012, June 29). The Experts Speak: Heres What People Predicted Would Happen When The iPhone Came Out Business Insider. Retrieved from here.3 Lieberman, D. (2007, April 30). CEO Forum: Microsofts Ballmer having a great time. USA Today. Retrieved from here.4 Marsel, K. (July 30, 2007). Analyst: iPhone is Harry Potter squib of cell phones. AppleInsider. Retrieved from here.5 Dormehl, L. (2017, June 26). Apple should pull the plug: 10 iPhone predictions from 2007. Cult of Mac. Retrieved from here.6 Mainstream analysts and consultants should have learned from the recent major telecoms disruption. When hired by AT&T (then the largest telecoms company in the world) in 1985 to predict the size of the mobile market by the year 2000, McKinsey came back with an estimate of 900,000. The number was 120 million. It was out by a factor of 120. The consultant was not alone. Vinod Khosla, the Silicon Valley investor, looked at forecasts by major technology research consultancies between 2002 and 2010 and found they routinely underestimated growth in the mobile phone market by a factor of eight.7 Gupta, R. (2016, May 9). Nokia CEO ended his speech saying: We didnt do anything wrong, but somehow we lost. LinkedIn. Retrieved from here.8 Macrotrends. (2020). Apple Market Cap 2006-2020 | AAPL. Retrieved from here.9 Statista. (2013, July 25). Global market share held by Nokia smartphones from 1st quarter 2007 to 2nd quarter 2013 [Data File]. Retrieved from here.10 Statista. (2020, February 27). Nokias Net Sales 1999-2019 [Data File]. Retrieved from here.11 Rosenfeld, M. J., Thomas, R. J., & Hausen, S. (2019). Disintermediating your friends: How online dating in the United States displaces other ways of meeting. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(36), 1775317758. Retrieved from here.12 Carson, B. (2017, April 14). Uber booked $20 billion in rides in 2016, but its still losing billions. Business Insider. Retrieved from here.13 Damodaran, A. (2014, June 18). Uber Isnt Worth $17 Billion. FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved from here.14 Shahan, Z. (2020, January 19). Tesla Model 3 = 7th Best Selling Car In USA. Clean Technica. Retrieved from here.15 United States Department of Commerce and Labor. (1909). Statistical Abstract of the United States, Table 224: Prices of Domestic Iron. Washington D.C.: Government Printing Office. Retrieved from here.16 Bramley, A (2015, December 3). How Chicagos Slaughterhouse Spectacles Paved The Way For Big Meat. NPR. Retrieved from here.17 The 1885 Otto engine had a mass/power ratio of 270 g/W while the 1908 Ford Model T had a mass/power ratio of 5 g/W, an improvement of 54x. Smil, V. (2013). Making the Modern World: Materials and Dematerialization. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.18 Gross, D. (1997). Forbes: Greatest Business Stories of All Time: 20 Inspiring Tales of Entrepreneurs Who Changed the Way We Live and Do Business. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.19 RethinkX estimate.20 Calder, L. (2001). Financing the American Dream: A Cultural History of Consumer Credit. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.21 Jakle, J. A., & Sculle, K. A. (1994). The Gas Station in America. Baltimore, Maryland: John Hopkins University Press. Retrieved from here.22 Jamal, H. (2017, January 22). Road Construction Machinery Uses of Road Construction Tools and Equipment. About Civil. Retrieved from here.23 U.S. Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations. (1995, September). Significant Features of Fiscal Federalism: Budget Processes and Tax Systems (Report No. M197). Washington D.C.: USACIR. Retrieved from here.24 Kinney, T. A. (2004). The Carriage Trade: Making Horse-Drawn Vehicles in America. Baltimore, Maryland: Johns Hopkins University Press.25 Long, W. (1903, August 4). New Bills: Motor-Cars Bill (Lords). UK Parliament. House of Commons. Hansard. 4 (126). Retrieved from here.26 Carriage Association of America. (1904, April). The Carriage Monthly. (40). Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: Ware Brothers Publishing.27 Carriage Association of America. (1912, December). The Future of the Horse Vehicle. The Carriage Monthly. (48). Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: Ware Brothers Publishing. From Kinney, T. A. (2004). The Carriage Trade: Making Horse-Drawn Vehicles in America. Baltimore, Maryland: Johns Hopkins University Press.28 Edwards, A. (1943, June 30). Sixteenth Census of the United States: 1940, Comparative Occupation Statistics for the United States 1870-1930. Washington D.C.: United States Government Printing Office. Retrieved from here.29 Smil, V. (2013). Making the Modern World: Materials and Dematerialization. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.30 Donlan, T. G. (2008, May 8). A World of Wealth: How Capitalism Turns Profits Into Progress. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Financial Times Press.31 Kinney, T. A. (2004). The Carriage Trade: Making Horse-Drawn Vehicles in America. Baltimore, Maryland: Johns Hopkins University Press.32 Edwards, A. (1943, June 30). Sixteenth Census of the United States: 1940, Comparative Occupation Statistics for the United States 1870-1930. Washington D.C.: United States Government Printing Office. Retrieved from here.33 Olmstead, A. L., & Rhode, P. W. (2001). Reshaping the Landscape: The Impact and Diffusion of the Tractor in American Agriculture, 1910-1960. The Journal of Economic History, 61(3), 663698. JSTOR. Retrieved from here.34 In another reinforcing feedback loop, thanks to federal and military incentives, 83% of U.S. population growth in the 1950s and 1970s took place in the suburbs as the suburban population grew from 36 million to 74 million people. Jackson, K. (1987, April 16). Crabgrass Frontier: The Suburbanization of the United States. Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press. Quoted from Poleg, D. (2019, October 31). Rethinking Real Estate: A Roadmap to Technologys Impact on the Worlds Largest Asset Class. New York, New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Also, here: Locke, J. L., & Wright, B. (2019). The American Yawp: A Massively Collaborative Open U.S. History Textbook. The Affluent Society, II: Rise of the Suburbs (Vol. 2). Palo Alto, California: Stanford University Press. Retrieved from here.35 Nicolaides, B., & Wiese, A. (2017). Suburbanization in the United States after 1945. Oxford Research Encyclopedias, American History. Retrieved from here.36 According to the American Automobile Association, there were more than 2,000 free car camps by 1924. The same year, a single camp in Yellowstone National Park received over 100,000 auto campers, according to the National Park Service. The Chicago Tribune predicted in 1929 that more than 5 million Americans would camp with their automobiles that year. Henderson, L. (2010). Americas Roadside Lodging: The Rise and Fall of the Motel. Historia, 19, 2343. Retrieved from here.37 Craven, W. F., & Cate, J. L. (1984). The Army Air Forces in World War II: Men and Planes (Vol. 6). Chicago, Illinois: University of Chicago Press. Retrieved from here.38 Ford built 6,790 B-24 bombers, 282,354 Jeeps, and 42,676 Army/Navy Cargo Trucks. It also produced 13,893 Universal Carriers for British Commonwealth nations. Jackson, D. (2020, February 27). Ford Motor Car Company in World War Two. US Auto Industry World War Two. Retrieved from here.39 Linear forecasts, which ignore feedbacks and assume all else remains equal, are not credible representations of future possibilities. The scenarios they depict are not plausible and we urge readers confronted by them to be duly skeptical.40The migration of Greek intellectuals to Europe (especially Italy) in the years between the Sack of Constantinople (1204) and the Ottoman Conquest of Constantinople (1453) was essential to the discovery and revival of Greek and Roman studies that led to the European Renaissance in humanism and science. How did the Fall of Constantinople change the Renaissance in Italy? Daily History. Retrieved from here.41 Byrne, J. P. (2017). The World of Renaissance Italy. Santa Barbara, California: ABC-CLIO.42 Examples of direct influence abound. John Argyropouloss students included Leonardo da Vinci, Piero di Cosimo de Medici, and Lorenzo de Medici, while Johann Reuchlin and Barlam of Seminara taught Petrarch. Copernicus learned from the writings of Besilius Bessarion. Matula, J. (2006). John Argyropoulos and his Importance for the Latin West. Philosophica, (7). Retrieved from here.Hay, D. (1961) The Italian Renaissance in its Historical Background. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press. Goddu, A. (2010, January 25). Copernicus and the Aristotelian Tradition Education, Reading, and Philosophy in Copernicuss Path to Heliocentrism. Leiden, Netherlands: Brill.43 The first printed book was found in China dating from 868 CE. Daley, J. (2016, May 11). Five Things to Know About the Diamond Sutra, the Worlds Oldest Dated Printed Book. Smithsonian Magazine. Retrieved from here.44 For example, Christopher Columbus, a sailor from Genoa, became an explorer in Lisbon and, after being turned down by he kings of Portugal, France, and England, got funding from the queen and king of Castile, Len, and Aragon (Spain) to sail West to bring back spices, gold, and silk from Asia. Mach, A. (2011, October 10). Christopher Columbus: Five things you thought you knew about the explorer. Christian Science Monitor. Retrieved from here.45 Kurlansky, M. (2016). Paper: Paging Through History. New York, New York: W. W. Norton & Company46 Kovarik, B. (2015). Revolutions in Communication: Media History from Gutenberg to the Digital Age. New York, New York: Bloomsbury Publishing USA.47 Ibid.48 Ibid.49 The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica. Mainz. Encyclopaedia Britannica. Retrieved from here.50 Kurlansky, M. (2016). Paper: Paging Through History. New York, New York: W. W. Norton & Company.51 Some of the first books printed in the French language were thanks in large part to German talent fleeing violence. Tucker, D. H., Unwin, P. S., & Unwin, G. (2017, November 15). History of publishing The age of early printing: 14501550. Encyclopaedia Britannica. Retrieved from here.52 Chase-Dunn, C., & Lerro, B. (2013). Social Change: Globalization from the Stone Age to the Present. Abingdon, United Kingdom: Routledge.53 For example, an amendment to the constitution, a change in monetary system from the gold standard to fiat money, or an expansion of democratic representation to women or minorities.。民主取代了君主政体，教会与国家分离。

所有行业都能感受到这种新型交通运输业带来的生产力效益，巩固了美国在其他市场的领导地位，推动整个20世纪的移民和投资水平，进一步加速了美国的增长和创新。1867年，用贝塞麦(Bessemer)工艺生产铁轨的成本为每吨170美元，但到1898年，成本已降至每吨15美元[15]。因此，苹果在2007年推出第一款智能手机，并非巧合;谷歌也在同年推出了Android(安卓)操作系统。印刷术对彼特拉克(Petrarch)和文艺复兴时期的哲学家如皮科德拉米兰多拉(Pico della Mirandola)等的思想传播也起了重要作用，而这些思想反过来又为启蒙运动和科学革命奠定了基础。

还没有制定交通规则，几乎没有人会开车，这些致命的组合导致许多交通事故。同样，技术在不同领域的交叉传播也关键，第一台印刷机是改良的葡萄酒压榨机，通常用于压榨葡萄和橄榄。

作者认为，图书印刷是第一波技术进步，帮助欧洲大大提高了它的社会能力，超过了以往的任何文明。尽管1900年，汽车似乎面临不可逾越的障碍，但快速普及还是发生了。

但羊皮纸非常昂贵，制作一本圣经需要200多只羊[45]。这些社会不仅没有陷入黑暗时代，因此也没有看到对书籍需求的激增;而且他们的书写系统很复杂，几千而不是几十个字符，意味着图书印刷没有提供真正的经济或手稿的时间优势。

随着智能手机彻底改变了我们的沟通、交友、联系方式和管理，扩大了我们个人和职业的网络，社交生活也发生了变化。这种小型手持设备不仅催生了新产品和服务，还有新的商业模式，颠覆了更广泛经济领域的一个又一个部门。用古往今来的事物发展规律证实这种观念的必然性和规律性。同样显而易见的是，谷歌公司也是异花授粉(cross-pollination)，创造了第一个能运转的AV，而且正在帮助引领这个市场的发展，也是全球智能手机操作系统的领导者。

1910-1920年间，这些行业在役的马和马车同样遭受重创,美国马夫的人数减少70%[32]。例如，全电动的特斯拉Model 3，现在是美国最畅销的汽车之一[14]。

所有这些新用途引发了强大的力量(反馈循环)，刺激了对智能手机的需求，而在经典网络效应中，每个新用户为所有现有的用户创造了更多价值。这款车的性能不断提高，价格也在迅速下降，广泛采用是主要原因。

组成组织系统的各种元素不应该看作是机械部件，而应该看作是相互作用和相互重叠的子系统。所有这些技术，在15世纪50年代随着古腾堡印刷机的发明，结合在一起。